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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.